Henry goes at least a head up with 100 yards to race, maybe a neck, but New Approach fights back. Stride by stride, inch by inch, Jim Bolger's colt closes the short gap all the way to the line, and they hit it together. Nobody knows. Johnny Murtagh doesn't know, Kevin Manning doesn't know. Then the judge knows. First number five. The photo says that Henry has prevailed by a nose, a distance that is so short, we don't have one like it in Ireland.
Now, back at Newmarket, the 2008 protagonists go toe to toe again in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas - not as racehorses this time, of course, but as progenitors. Dawn Approach is the star among New Approach's first crop, while Cristoforo Colombo and George Vancouver fly the Henrythenavigator flag, the three colts representing the Jim Bolger and Aidan O'Brien yards respectively, just as their fathers had done before them.
Of course, Dawn Approach's chance is obvious. He was last year's leading juvenile, basking in a Timeform rating of 126, 6lb higher than his closest European pursuer. Unbeaten in six, he won the first juvenile race of the year in Ireland, then proceeded to steamroll over all that was put in front of him, taking in the Coventry Stakes and the National Stakes before rounding off the season by winning the Dewhurst Stakes, thereby providing his trainer with his fifth victory in the race in seven years.
Possible chinks? Of course there are. We haven't seen him race yet this term and, until you see them race as three-year-olds, there is always the worry that a juvenile's superiority over his peers was more attributable to precocity than it was to raw ability. But Jim Bolger is more than happy that his colt has made at least normal improvement from two to three, and the reality is that he wouldn't have to have improved much at all in absolute terms from his Dewhurst win in order to win a normal Guineas.
The distance? No problem. He was staying on well at the end of his two seven-furlong races as a juvenile, and he is bred to get at least a mile. The course? He won the Dewhurst over seven furlongs of it. The Dip? Shouldn't be an issue. He wasn't that fluent going into it in the Dewhurst, but Kevin Manning said afterwards that he was just idling. It is unlikely that he will be idling at the same point on the track on Saturday.
Common consensus in recent weeks had been that Mars was going to be the Ballydoyle Guineas number one, so it was mildly surprising when Aidan said on Wednesday that Joseph would probably ride Cristoforo Colombo, not Mars, nor George Vancouver for that matter. But all three have chances.
You will hear that well-worn line at least a couple of times between now and 3.50pm on Saturday, that if Aidan thinks he has three Guineas horses, he probably doesn't have any. When you do, counter with this. Camelot was one of two Ballydoyle colts in last year's Guineas. Henrythenavigator was also one of two in 2008. When George Washington won the Guineas in 2006, he was one of three Ballydoyle colts in the race. When Footstepsinthesand won it in 2005, he was one of two. When Rock Of Gibraltar won it in 2002, he was one of four. Only once has Aidan won the Guineas with a single bullet, King Of Kings in 1998, his first. So don't be put off by the triple-representation.
Cristoforo Colombo obviously has the best chance of the three according to the market and to jockey bookings. He has always been highly-regarded, he was only a length behind Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes when he raced on the far side, unlike the other four horses who filled the first five places, and he was doing all his best work late on in the Middle Park over six furlongs on easy ground. The cheekpieces angle is an interesting one, and he will bounce off the forecast fast ground.
George Vancouver should also appreciate the ground. Another son of Henrythenavigator, he has three and a half lengths to make up on Dawn Approach on their running in the Dewhurst, but Aidan O'Brien's colt didn't have the run of the race that day, he had to make his ground from the rear, away from the stands rail and on easy ground, none of which would have suited.
On top of that, George Vancouver improved on his Dewhurst run to land the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita in November. He showed a fine turn of foot there on fast ground to put the race to bed, and that turn of foot could be a potent weapon.
Joseph made the point on Thursday that Mars may be a little inexperienced for a Guineas, having raced just once, but he raced mightily impressively on that one occasion, winning a seven-furlong Dundalk maiden by almost five lengths from a stable companion who won next time. He is immaculately-bred, by Galileo out of a half-sister to Invincible Spirit, and he is a player.
The other Irish runner, Leitir Mor, is also interesting, trading at huge prices in places. True, his primary role will probably be to ensure that there is a true pace, but he is good front-runner, a Group Three winner who appeared to have them all in trouble passing the bushes in the Dewhurst, and the fact that Jim Bolger considered allowing him take his chance in the French Guineas is significant. At worst, he will probably trade at a fair bit shorter in-running.
Irish-trained horses have won seven of the last 11 renewals of the 2000 Guineas, and it is long odds-on that that record will be further enhanced on Saturday.
QIPCO 1000 Guineas? Different story. Just three of the last eight 1000 Guineas winners were trained in Ireland, and before the Aidan O'Brien-trained Virginia Waters in 2005, you have to go back to Tommy Stack's filly Las Meninas in 1994.
There isn't the same strength in-depth to the Irish challenge for the fillies' Classic on Sunday as there is to the colts' race, but all three fillies have a chance.
Moth probably has the best chance of the triumvirate. Aidan O'Brien's filly was beaten in both her runs last season, but she was really impressive in winning her maiden at The Curragh four weeks ago. She showed an impressive turn of foot to go from the back of the field to the front in a matter of strides before clearing away to win by four and a half lengths from a decent filly of Tommy Stack's, Wannabe Better.
The filly who finished fourth that day, Tobann, was most impressive in winning her maiden by seven lengths at Gowran Park, and the fact that Team Ballydoyle have paid the £30,000 to supplement Moth to the race tells you that they think she is well worth her place in the line-up.
The other Ballydoyle filly in Sunday's field, Snow Queen, will undoubtedly improve on her seasonal debut third behind Rawaaq in Leopardstown's Guineas Trial last month, but she will need to if she is to feature, and the Dermot Weld-trained Rasmeyaa is much more unexposed.
Weld must be disappointed that he has lost the race against time to get Big Break to Newmarket, but Rasmeyaa could be an able deputy. A daughter of New Approach, Hamdan Al Maktoum's filly came right away from her field in winning her maiden at Leopardstown last October. That looks like a really strong maiden now, with the second, third, fifth and sixth all winning since (the fifth, Rehn's Next, won a Group Three race), and Rasmeyaa has been quietly supported in the ante-post market in the last few days.
It could be a memorable weekend for the Irish Classic Class of 2013.
Judul: Irish team looks strong
Rating: 100% based on 99998 ratings. 5 user reviews.
Ditulis Oleh 12:07 AM
Rating: 100% based on 99998 ratings. 5 user reviews.
Ditulis Oleh 12:07 AM